After Chaim Bloom was finally fired, I was thinking back to his 2021 offseason. The Red Sox run in 2021 was the only bright spot of Bloom’s tenure. I remember being really down on the club after 2020. I went so far as to drive to New Hampshire (Massachusetts still didn’t have legal sports betting at the time) to bet the under on the Red Sox win total of 80.5.
I scrolled through my personal Facebook page to see what I wrote about that offseason and the 2021 club at the time. That post is below.
I was right about Garrett Richards, Marwin Gonzalez and Franchy Cordero being failures, even if I neglected to mention the Red Sox got Josh Winckowski back in that deal. On the positive side I was right about Kikè and Adam Ottavino being good moves.
The main thing I was right about was the direction of the franchise. Unless ownership lets the next general manager invest at least $400 million in starting pitching, this team has no chance to compete for the rest of the 2020s.
Going back to 2021, after the Red Sox hot start it was clear the over on their win total was going to hit. I figured if they won say 90 plus games, there was a fair chance the Red Sox would win the division. A few weeks into the season I bet the Sox to win the AL East as a hedge against my original bet.
At the beginning of the offseason, I put together the Jay Plan to fix the Red Sox. By fix, I meant make the team competitive and if things broke right a wild card contender. Lets see how Chiam Bloom actually did:
Matt Andrise: Ron Roenicke would have killed for this guy after he was given a roster with two major league starting pitchers. Coming off such a short season they needed a guy who could spot start and provide multiple innings out of the pen. Grade B
Hunter Renfroe: One thing overlooked on the 2020 Red Sox is how bad they were defensively. Renfroe is a good defender in right. Will be painful to watch at the plate when he doesn’t hit HRs. Grade C
Adam Ottavino: His 2020 stats were skewed by one brutal outing. Saves us all from having to watch Matt Barnes try and close games. Analytical guy who should be a leader on the staff. Really only cost the Sox money. Best move of the offseason for me. Grade A-
Kike Hernandez: Becomes the best Red Sox 2B since Pedroia had two funcioning knees. Plays with energy and will become a fan favorite. Versatility and salary means that he can transition to a utility role when Jeter Downs is ready. Grade B+
Garrett Richards: Has always had a good arm, but this is an egregious overpay. Last year was his first healthy season in years, and he still wasn’t good enough to start in the postseason for the Padres. That’s after the Padres top two starters in Limet and Clevenger went down with injury. If this deal was $4m with incentives that could bring it up to $12m, that would be one thing. Money should have been used on a better and/or more durable pitcher. At least Corey Kluber would have offered a lot more upside. Nice job dinking around a guy who wanted to play in Boston over a second year option he didn’t want. Grade F
Franchy Cordero and four magic beans: It’s one thing for a 16 year-old international amateur, or an 18 year-old drafted out of high school to be described as “toolsy as hell”, it’s another when describing a 26 year-old with three years of MLB service time on his third organization.
Benintendi only had two years of control left. Even if Benintendi turns things around, he probably wouldn’t have been here by the time the team has a chance to be a real contender again. If Benintendi had another poor year, his value would be zero. So Bloom traded him for a cheaper outfielder with an extra year of control who still might break out. The four minor leaguers is what makes this a Rays trade. The Rays cycle through young bullpen arms and utility guys like an NFL team cycles through RBs. To do that a club has to be constantly on the lookout for players to stockpile.
What the Red Sox did was take a car, say a 2016 BMW 3 series that was beautiful when it was new, but now needs body work and a lot of deferred maintenance, and then traded it for 2017 Volkswagen GTI and cash. Then they invested the cash with WallStreetBets. Grade D
Marwin Gonzalez: This guy was awesome to have on your fantasy bench in 2017. He qualified all over the diamond and he raked. Gonzalez benefitted from the Astros sign stealing more than anyone as his OPS has gone from 907 in 2017 to 733, 736, and 606 the past three years. I would rather have brought back Brock Holt. Grade D-
Rafael Devers: Not extending any of the Win Dance Repeat Outfield is a massive organizational failure. It is hard to sell the fanbase on rebuilding the farm system when you just failed to extend most of the homegrown core of the last World Series team. They HAVE to extend Devers.
They have some nice pieces in the system that should contribute, but the only potential all star is Triston Casas. Casas hasn’t had a single at bat in AA yet, but reports from the alternate site last year were positive. If this team is going to be anything more than mediocre in the 2020s they need Devers hitting in the middle of the lineup. Grade INC
Overall offseason grade: C-
The 2021 Red Sox will be better simply because it is impossible for them to be worse. Most of that improvement will come from players returning from injury, and with some luck homegrown players from the system.
The ceiling is 85 wins, but this is still a 4th place team. The Yankees are obviously better. The Rays lost some pieces, but they will still find a way to be better. The Blue Jays could be the Padres of the American League.
The height of the Red Sox ambition the next 2-3 years is respectable mediocrity. If you go to a game, or there is nothing else on TV, the product should be mostly watchable.
One warning: Just because the last rebuild in the mid 2010s resulted in three division titles and a World Series does not mean this rebuild will be as successful. The Phillies still haven’t had a winning season since 2011.
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